Wanna Bet?

Here are some early predictions on what will be favorites this year for awards:

Because he lost for "Walk the Line,'' Joaquin Phoenix will be nominated for "Reservation Road'' and "We Own the Night'' and his rivals will have a tough time beating him.
Because they have received the biggest praise _ "Masterpiece'' has been tossed around by many critics, including me! _ the Coen brothers will be multiple nominees and win something for "No Country for Old Men,'' probably screenplay adaptation. Josh Brolin will be nominated for a best supporting actor, and Javier Bardem for best actor (but he'll lose again).
In "Lions for Lambs,'' a movie with Meryl Streep and Robert Redford, the only nominee, amazingly, will be Tom Cruise for his intense (again), hyper performance as a pushy senator vying for a presidential nomination. Cruise has finally found the perfect role.
Cate Blanchett will be nominated again, for another bad movie: "Elizabeth _ The Golden Age.'' Scarily, she may win unless somebody else comes along. She should be beaten by Tilda Swinton, who's creepily magnificent in "Michael Clayton,'' which should win best picture and maybe best actor (if he beats Phoenix) for George Clooney. Director Tony Gilroy will lose to the Coens, but he probably will get the best original screenplay award, deservedly.
Stay tuned.

Meryl rides again

Yes, it's true that most of the best roles in the strongest movies this season are going to men, as usual.
But strong women performers can do a lot with slim pickings.
Meryl Streep enlivens the tough torture movie "Rendition,'' and that's with perhaps six shortish scenes.
Streep, employing an understated southern accent, portrays the head of the CIA's "relocation'' program of terror suspects. Streep wears power suits and a pinched expression on her mouth; she's the kind of boss you'd be ultra-wary of crossing.
And in the upcoming "Lions for Lambs,'' Streep is playing a character on the other side of the political spectrum: a skeptical reporter who realizes she had better be incisive in her reporting, as a program to disengage from the Iraq war is contemplated by American administration officials.
And keep an eye out for an emerging star: Amy Ryan of TV's "The Wire,'' is different and equally good in "Dan in Real Life;'' "Gone Baby Gone'' and "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead.''

Ryan Rules

In case there was any doubt that Oscar nominee Ryan Gosling was the legitimate heir apparent to the Jimmy Stewart mantle, you can see for yourself: Gosling stars in "Lars and the Real Girl,'' opening at area theaters Oct. 26.
Gosling portrays a nebbishy lonely guy who comes out of his shell after buying a lifesize sex doll _ not for sex but for companionship.

The movie has a sterling supporting cast including Patrica Clarkson as the psychologist who understands the lonely's guy weird path to happiness.

Will Gosling get another nomination this year? It's already a crowded field with Emile Hirsch, Joaquin Phoenix, Philip Seymour Hoffman and Denzel Washingon, but he could prevail.

Wit and wisdom

Michael Caine is a reporter's dream. I interviewed him by telephone earlier this week, and all he needed was one question and he was off on a 30 minute chat, practically non stop.
Caine is promoting the new version of "Sleuth,'' the thriller about the mind games that an aging writer and the man who stole his wife play at an isolated English estate. Jude Law co-stars; it's scheduled to open in our area by the end of October.
Caine first made the movie in 1972 with Lord Laurence Olivier, who was high strung during filming because he had lost his job as artistic director of England's National Theatre. Before shooting began, Olivier sent Caine a letter saying not to worry about his knighhood title (sir, at the time) and to please call him Larry.
Would Caine, who was knighted sir by Queen Elizabeth in 1993, make it to his lordship? No he said because getting a lordship is "all political and I'm not political.''
As for working with Law, famous for his handsome looks, Caine said "he is completely oblivious of his looks and in fact, considers them a distraction.''
Must be nice.
Law also surprised Caine by being "totally dedicated to what he does.''

Sexy

Yesterday, I talked about the strong movies that are due to arrive in our market in the next three months.
Here's another heads-up, especially for those who are squeamish about or morally repelled by graphic film sex: Three new movies feature graphic sex, and two of them begin, sans credits or introduction, with couples having sex.
One is "We Own the Night,'' featuring Joaquin Phoenix and Eva Mendes stealing a heated moment in a dingy office of the club he manages in New York City.
Even more startling, Sidney Lumet's "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead'' opens with Philip Seymour Hoffman and Marisa Tomei having protracted sex in what is commonly referred to as the doggie position.
And, even though director Ang Lee said he felt morally compromised about helming its sex scenes, "Lust, Caution'' features three or four lengthy and graphic sex scenes. Of the three movies, "Lust, Caution'' is the only one rated NC-17 _ no one under 17 is permitted to attend the film.
My guess is that with the overwhelming popularity of pornographic home viewing (at least 25 percent of the home viewing marekt now), mainstream filmmakers feel pressed into featuring more and more daring sex scenes.
But not every market will allow them: Lee told The Press that he would have to delete the sex from "Lust, Caution'' for distribution in China, where there is no film rating system and therefore, state censorship instead.

Sigh

We can all breathe a collective sigh of relief: the real movies are coming!
Don't fail to catch the following excellent movies with various virtues _ remarkable acting, wonderful screenplays and creative directorial vision you can't fake with special effects.
Among the movies that I'd see again are "Michael Clayton,'' about a burned-out lawyer's crisis of morality, with a superior performance by George Clooney (opens Oct. 12); "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead,'' a grim but brilliant drama about the evil that greed perpetuates, from Sidney Lumet (late October opening); "Sleuth,'' a superior remake about a murderous confrontation between an aging writer and the man who stole his wife (Oct. 26), and "Reservation Road,'' a heartbreaking story of good people doing awful things after a terrible accident, with Joaquin Phoenix and Mark Ruffalo (opens Oct. 19).

Put 'em up

Is there a nastier trend in movie advertising than the woman with a gun?
Jodie Foster is hanging on to a gat, in an archly phallic pose, for "The Brave One'' ads, while Jennifer Garner is taking aim for "The Kingdom'' in its ads. Then there's Milla Jovovich striding around in garters and two automatic weapons, for "Resident Evil.''
It's not for nothing that Foster and Garner are mothers of small children. What message does this send, to their kids and others'?
Conversely, most other film ads show women either as sex objects (Maria Bellucci, "Shoot 'Em Up,'') or smiling ciphers ("Sydney White,'' "Good Luck Chuck'').
Kudos to "Valley of Elah,'' and "Eastern Promises,'' which show their stars, Charlize Theron and Naomi Watts, as they actually appear in the films: strong and stoic women fully clothed and not a gun in sight.