Wanna Bet?

Here are some early predictions on what will be favorites this year for awards:

Because he lost for "Walk the Line,'' Joaquin Phoenix will be nominated for "Reservation Road'' and "We Own the Night'' and his rivals will have a tough time beating him.
Because they have received the biggest praise _ "Masterpiece'' has been tossed around by many critics, including me! _ the Coen brothers will be multiple nominees and win something for "No Country for Old Men,'' probably screenplay adaptation. Josh Brolin will be nominated for a best supporting actor, and Javier Bardem for best actor (but he'll lose again).
In "Lions for Lambs,'' a movie with Meryl Streep and Robert Redford, the only nominee, amazingly, will be Tom Cruise for his intense (again), hyper performance as a pushy senator vying for a presidential nomination. Cruise has finally found the perfect role.
Cate Blanchett will be nominated again, for another bad movie: "Elizabeth _ The Golden Age.'' Scarily, she may win unless somebody else comes along. She should be beaten by Tilda Swinton, who's creepily magnificent in "Michael Clayton,'' which should win best picture and maybe best actor (if he beats Phoenix) for George Clooney. Director Tony Gilroy will lose to the Coens, but he probably will get the best original screenplay award, deservedly.
Stay tuned.